Month: July 2013

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The Smurfs 2

Posted on by skulkaew

Set three-years after the first film, Gargamel (Hank Azria), last seen left in New York, has improbably become a celebrity sorcerer. Worse, he’s made two more ill-fated forays hoping to harness magical smurf essence, resulting in the creation of smurf-like creatures called naughties. Desperate to unlock the formula which would perfect his creations, he kidnaps Smurfette (Katy Perry) leading Papa (Jonathan Winters), Clumsy (Anton Yelchin), Grouchy (George Lopez), and Vanity (John Oliver)to set out for the real world and seek their friends Patrick (Neil Patrick Harris) and Grace Winslow (Jayma Mays) and their son, Blue (Jacob Tremblay), to form a rescue mission.

Scott Foundas of Variety writes, “Genially goofy shenanigans, incredibly corny punch lines and Hank Azaria’s go-for-broke performance as the incompetent wizard Gargamel are an entirely welcome thing in a summer movie season full of so much apocalyptic Sturm und Drang.” BoxOffice.com is reporting that The Smurfs 2 will open a around $26M.

Rating: PG // Genre: Animation, Comedy, Family // Runtime: 1 hr. and 40 min. // Starring: Hank Azaria, Neil Patrick Harris, Jayma Mays // Directed by: Raja Gosnell // Written by: J. David Stem, David N. Weiss, Jay Scherick, David Ronn, Karey Kirkpatrick // Produced by: Columbia Pictures, Sony Pictures Animation, Hemisphere Media Capital, Kerner Entertainment Company // Distributed by: Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Releasing

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2013 Box Office

Posted on by skulkaew

After a slow start to 2013, it turns out that the sky isn’t falling for the box office. This summer has proven to be one of the biggest on record despite an unprecedented number of big budget flops earlier on in the year. Thanks to more hits than misses, summer 2013 is running ahead of last year’s by just over ten percent and is the highest it’s ever been at this point in the season according to BoxOfficeMojo.

Highest-Grossing-Movies-Summer-2013-Bravo-Design

By definition, the summer seasons runs from the first Friday in May through Labor Day, so there are five weekends left to beat 2011’s total gross of $4.4B. Listed below are the remaining movies for the summer 2013 slate.

What’re you most excited to see?

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The Wolverine

Posted on by skulkaew

Summoned to Japan by a comrade from World War 2, Logan (aka Wolverine) is presented the opportunity to end his curse of near immortality. Born with a mutant healing factor that allows him to recover from virtually any wound, disease or toxin at an accelerated rate, the healing factor also slows down his aging process, enabling him to outlive everyone around him. Vulnerable for the first time and pushed to his limits, Wolverine becomes embroiled in a conflict that forces him to confront Yakuza, ninjas and samurai, but the greatest battle of all is the one where Logan tiptoes between being a monster and becoming a human being.

Scott Collura of IGN writes, “This story paints a deep and compelling portrait of Logan, a haunted character that Hugh Jackman still finds new ways to play all these years later. A standalone adventure for the classic character that reminds us that there’s more to this genre than universe-building and crossovers, The Wolverine is the superhero movie surprise of the summer.”

Jocelyn Noveck of the Associated Press writes, “At this point Hugh Jackman could play the role in his sleep — but he doesn’t, and the nuances he and director James Mangold bring to the character lift this enterprise up from the usual blockbuster-sequel fare.”

BoxOffice.com is predicting that The Wolverine opens at $72M this weekend.

Rating: PG-13 // Genre: Action, Adventure, Fantasy // Runtime: 2 hr. and 6 min. // Starring: Hugh Jackman, Famke Janssen, Will Yun Lee // Directed by: James Mangold // Written by: Mark Bomback, Scott Frank, Christopher McQuarrie // Produced by: Twentieth Century Fox, Marvel Entertainment, Donners’ // Distributed by: Twentieth Century Fox

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Google TV

Posted on by skulkaew

It looks like Google is making moves towards TV. According to the Wall Street Journal, the search magnate has approached media companies with regards to licensing content for a service that would not only stream programming but also integrate on-demand applications as well as search.

If successfully launched, this has huge implications for traditional TV as we know it and might, ultimately, create more robust competition for a segment already undergoing rapid change in the wake of new technology and diversified consumption.

Among Google’s competitors are Intel, Apple and Sony, all of whom are working on products with similar offerings. Reuters reports that Intel has allocated an estimated $2B to TV programming licensing deals but has failed to officially sign any major content companies despite offering to pay as much as 75% more than traditional industry-rates. Insiders emphasize that the $2B budget would span multiple years and is not “an upfront or ‘year one’ spend on content.”

To quote Tim Carmody of The Verge, “Internet TV is hard in ways that have little to do with technology. Striking deals with content partners is very hard. Bringing a product to market that’s comparable with what cable and satellite providers can offer, let alone more compelling, is extremely hard. It’s hard if this is what you do every day in your core business. It’s unbelievably hard if you’ve never done this before. Very few people would be surprised if Intel, like Google, couldn’t pull this off.”

Generally speaking, media companies are reluctant to rock the boat and undermine existing arrangements with distributors. While they’re open to licensing content, the best prices typically go to the biggest distributors. For Google and other would-be Internet TV companies to procure favorable rates, they would almost certainly have to accept standard programming bundles which would likely eliminate an à la carte channel offering.

That said, I can’t imagine a mass exodus from Comcast or Direct TV unless one or two things happen. The first scenario would be that Google acquires licensing rights and stacks the service with Fiber. The second, and I think this is a long shot, would be if Google offered a radically different on-demand service where content was made available as soon as it premiered, setting Google TV up with massive programming library. This would cost the company a fortune, but it would be a compelling reason to make the jump no less.

I, personally, think that application integration is a total wash seeing that TVs already come with Netflix, YouTube and Hulu installed on them. If they didn’t, I’d probably use my console. But if I didn’t have that, I could use an HDMI cable from my laptop to my TV. The point being that there’s no shortage of options here.

When it comes to the arms race for TV, the future is pretty obvious. Viewers want to watch what they want, when you want, however they want. While that might be on a tablet during your commute to work, at the gym or in the comfort of your living room, each and everyone’s preference is different. I can foresee how the first distributor who irons out all these nuances at a competitive price point might ultimately prevail in a winner take all situation.

I kind of hope it comes with super fast Internet.

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The Conjuring

Posted on by skulkaew

Based on a true story, The Conjuring tells the tale of Roger and Carolyn Perron (Ron Livingston and Lili Taylor) and their five daughters, who find that they’re not the only inhabitants in their newly bought two-story lake house. The signs, though not-so-innocuous-even-at-first (e.g., slamming doors, eerie presences, mysterious bruises), proceed to worsen.

Feeling increasingly tormented, the Perrons enlist the help of paranormal investigators, Ed and Lorraine Warren (Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga), a demonologist and clairvoyant made famous by their investigation into the Amityville Horror, in what will prove to be the most terrifying case of their lives.

Sheri Linden of The Hollywood Reporter writes, “On the basis of through-the-roof reactions at test screenings, Warners and New Line moved the film’s release from January to the summer tentpole season, a decision that should pay off with sizzling summer receipts from young adults. But the handsomely shot, expertly button-pushing scare-fest has the polish and the cast to draw older audiences who grew up on shockers built from performances rather than CGI.”

Justin Chang of Variety calls it, “A sensationally entertaining old-school freak out and one of the smartest, most viscerally effective thrillers in recent memory. Director James Wan’s sixth and best feature is pull-out-the-stops horror filmmaking of a very sophisticated order.”

BoxOffice.com is predicting that The Conjuring debuts at $30M.

Rating: R // Genre: Horror, Thriller // Runtime: 1 hr. and 52 min. // Starring: Vera Farmiga, Patrick Wilson, Lili Taylor, Ron Livingston // Directed by: James Wan // Written by: Chad Hayes, Carey Hayes // Produced by: Evergreen Media Group, New Line Cinema, The Safran Company // Distributed by: Warner Bros.

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Tracking Movies: Hype in Hollywood

Posted on by skulkaew

A couple of days ago, I was reading an article about Pacific Rim, a film we worked on that’s being released this weekend, only to learn that it had been tracking abysmally. Boxoffice.com projects a $41M opening for Pacific Rim second to Grown Ups 2. Forbes reported around $30M. Both are bad when you take into account that Pacific Rim probably cost around $200M to produce before print and advertising (P&A). For every dollar spent on production, studios spend an additional 51-58 cents on average to release and market a film in the United States and Canada according to Baseline Intelligence.

“What is tracking?” you ask. Good question.

In the Forbes article I mentioned earlier, Scott Mendelson defines tracking as “a way to measure the effectiveness of a marketing campaign and/or possibly signal where and how additional marketing dollars should be spent.” The tough part being where and how to allocate ad spend (see: attribution problems).

In any case, tracking works to gauge audience interest in a movie.

For distributors and movie marketers, the not-so-fun-part is that once you near a release date and reach the point of no return, there are no second chances to regroup or reposition a movie. Two examples off the top of my head of campaigns gone awry include Green Zone and, more recently, John Carter. Green Zone made about $15M in its debut weekend. How did it fare after? Not great. Marketing fizzled out, and the movie yielded a tepid $20M through its theatrical run for a domestic total of $35M on a $150M budget. The kicker: Matt Damon passed on a role in Avatar to make this film. John Carter proved to be an epic disaster for Disney when it yielded $282M worldwide on a $250M production budget. Why? Because no one knew anything about the film.

“How is tracking done?”

In part, through pre-release surveys and focus groups. I can’t find specific metrics currently used in forecast modeling for box office numbers, but I imagine it’s based on parameters like demand, market testing, ticket prices, number of exhibitors, rating, screening reviews, marketing/advertising budgets, etc.

Last month, Google announced that by measuring search volume, franchise status, time of year and other factors, it can predict a movie’s opening weekend with 92% accuracy. Wikipedia boasts high accuracy as well taking into account: page traffic, edits, links, etc., but Hollywood is less than impressed.

Kind of surprisingly (to me at least) is that social media isn’t a very good standard to use when testing the water whether that be for predicting box office numbers or award show winners. Dr. William J. Ward found that if Facebook were used to decide best picture at the 85th Academy Awards®, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (40M likes) would’ve won by a landslide. The same would be true if follower count on Twitter had been used. Is it a good thing the Academy isn’t run by tweens? I’m undecided.

But what strikes me as insane is that with exception to brand new releases (tracked here via seven-day-results and not weekend to weekend), every other movie is down at the box office. Monsters University, World War Z, Man of Steel, etc., each is losing steam, and will continue to do week by week, but the general outlook for Pacific Rim remains bleak despite early positive reception.

Grown Ups 2 is its big competitor as it’s the only other movie with a wide theatrical release this weekend. Its predecessor, Grown Ups, raked in $270M worldwide despite less than stellar reviews. Its greatest strength was its sheer star power, featuring Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, Rob Schneider, David Spade, Salma Hayek, Maria Bello, Maya Rudolph, Steve Buscemi, Norm MacDonald, Tim Meadows, etc. The sequel has gone down the same vein boasting twice as many new celebrities (sans Schneider) that range from Taylor Lautner to Shaq to the Lonely Island and so on.

The only thing is that Grown Ups 2 is holding steady at a 7% on RottenTomatoes.com with 55 reviews, only four of which is positive. Boxoffice.com projects a $47M opening, but I’m not so sure. The Lone Ranger had a 20% approval rating this time last week, and it debuted to the tune of $29M. Granted, there are going to be people who buy in knowing full well what to expect but $47M?

“What does any of this mean?” I’m glad you asked.

A few months ago, I was reading about a major production that was plagued with setbacks. Described as “a nightmare from top to bottom,” it lacked any semblance of clear creative direction, was over budgeted, behind schedule and already in need of extensive reshoots. The problems seemed to never end, which more or less culminated in one very public setback where a Hungarian counter terrorism unit confiscated 85 prop guns on a location shoot.

If you haven’t guessed, the movie was World War Z. Early on, it looked like it was dead in the water. The bad press surrounding the film led to a consensus that it was unlikely to take in more than $55M in its opening and less likely to recoup its production costs in the long-run.

World War Z opened at $66.4M and has since earned $165M domestically and $207M abroad for a total of $373M worldwide. I mean, come on. It’s Brad Pitt vs. zombies, two things moviegoers around the world love.

Part of me thinks that Pacific Rim might do spectacular just for the fact that the premise is centered squarely on giant robots punching monsters that threaten the existence of humanity right in the face. And from what I’ve seen, fans will shell out cash to see gratuitous giant robot violence. That said, I also think it’s possible that Guillermo del Toro et al. set the standard for the genre moving forward. So in my mind, projected openings mean very little.

After the dust settles, what do you think box office numbers correspond to? Quality or hype? Tell us in the comment section below. 

Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com, BoxOfficeMojo.com, Filmcrithulk

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Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2

Posted on by skulkaew

Pacific Rim

In the near future, giant monsters known as “Kaiju” have risen from a portal in a crevasse beneath the Pacific Ocean, resulting in a war that takes millions of lives and consumes humanity’s resources for years on end.

To combat the Kaiju, massive robots, piloted by humans, called “Jaegers” are developed to fight off the menace. But even they prove vulnerable against the giant monsters. On the verge of defeat, the forces defending mankind have no choice but to turn to two unlikely heroes to make a final stand.

Robbie Collin of The Telegraph says, “At first, watching Pacific Rim feels like rediscovering a favorite childhood cartoon – but del Toro has flooded the project with such affection and artistry that, rather than smiling nostalgically, you find yourself enchanted all over again.” Todd McCarthy of The Hollywood Reporter writes, “Guillermo del Toro’s imaginative sci-fi epic is everything that monster movies since the beginning of time might have wished they could be.” Angela Watercutter of Wired writes, “Pacific Rim is literally the most awesome movie of the summer.”

Boxoffice.com is predicting that Pacific Rim opens at  around $38M this weekend. I’m going to put my prediction out there and guess $52M+.

07/17/2013 Edit: I was most certainly wrong. Pacific Rim opened at almost $38M on the dot.

Rating: PG-13 // Genre: Action, Adventure, Sci-Fi // Runtime: 2 hr. and 11 min. // Starring: Charlie Hunnam, Idris Elba, Rinko Kikuchi // Directed by: Guillermo del Toro // Written by: Travis Beacham & Guillermo del Toro // Produced by: Warner Bros., Legendary Pictures // Distributed by: Warner Bros.

Grown Ups 2

The all-star comedy cast from Grown Ups returns for more summertime laughs. Since the end of the first film, Lenny (Adam Sandler) has moved his family back to his hometown where the kids can ride bikes to school, and he gets to hang out with pals: Eric (Kevin James), Kurt (Chris Rock), and Marcus (David Spade).  What quickly becomes obvious is that between old bullies, new bullies, schizophrenic bus drivers, drunk cops and costumed party crashers, sometimes crazy follows you.

Boxoffice.com predicts that Grown Ups 2 will open at $47M.

Grown Ups 2, Bravo Design Inc.

Rating: PG-13 // Genre: Comedy // Runtime: 1 hr. and 41 min. // Starring: Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, David Spade, Salma Hayek, Maya Rudolph, Maria Bello // Directed by: Dennis Dugan // Written by: Fred Wolf, Adam Sandler, Tim Herlihy // Produced by: Columbia Pictures, Happy Madison Productions, Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE) // Distributed by: Sony Pictures Releasing

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Twitter, Why So Difficult?

Posted on by skulkaew

Twitter, sometimes awesome; usually not so much, for me at least.

I do like Twitter for the fact that it’s this cool virtual networking event that you can show up to in your underwear and chat with people you might not ever meet in real life. I just find it über difficult to predict which of our tweets will pick up momentum and garner 3,500 clicks and which ones will fly under the radar and only generate three clicks [even if it’s hilarious].

Part of me thinks that our following isn’t being compelled/engaged sufficiently either because I’m not sharing the right content or because I’m just not very interesting, but a little research quells my insecurity from the latter. Sort of.

Guy Kawasaki has 1,360,205 followers on Twitter, and he rarely gets more than a few retweets per update.  The same is true for Brian Clark (aka Copybloger) who has about a tenth of the following and actually posts interesting, original material on copywriting and marketing.

Mindy Kaling, who you might know as Kelly Kapoor from The Office, posted that she woke up with “crunchy hair” this morning and received 123 retweets and 220 favorites.

I’m not sure what that means, but it’s kind of discouraging.

Feeling a little dejected, I sought out counsel on how to step up my Twitter game. And rest assured, there’s no shortage of articles that’ll tell you how to amplify your presence or be more engaging or write better tweets based on semantics and so on and so on. I read a ton of them and compiled a list of actionable advice before coming to the realization that I’d rather crab walk on the highway than publish that article.

The fact is there isn’t a singular “right way” for using Twitter (or any other social media platform for that matter). It really depends on your business and your goals. Just know that the people you want to get in front of are already somewhere online. It’s up to you to figure how you want to connect with them.

For me, that means removing my ego from the equation. This isn’t about me; it’s about the people I’m trying to engage. That means that I need to spend more time interacting with the people in my network and less time pushing content in one direction (i.e., into a wall).

Tony Hsieh, the CEO of Zappos said, “We’ve found that Twitter has been a great way for us to connect on a more personal level with our employees and customers. We use it to help build our brand, not drive direct sales. It’d be like asking how does providing a telephone number for customer service translate into new business when they are mostly non-sales-related calls. In the long term, Twitter helps drive repeat customers and word of mouth, but we’re not looking to it as a way of driving immediate sales.”

How do you use Twitter?